If the research industry learned anything from the outcomes of Brexit and Trump’s 2016 presidential bid, it’s that our models for gauging public opinion and predicting future behaviour need to evolve. To overcome the constraints of traditional, top-down approaches to online polling, YouGov applied a newly developed technique known as Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP for short) to predicting the outcome of the 2017 UK General Election. The model worked as YouGov called a hung UK parliament 3 weeks before voting day, and we learned some fascinating things along the way. This paper will share how YouGov applied MRP.
Stephen Tracy, Managing Director, YouGov Singapore.
Presented at Asia Research Breakfast Seminar in Singapore on September 27, 2017.
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